Locations

Our Technology/Benefits Administration Solutions practice is based in Redhill, Surrey, approximately 30 minutes by train from London Victoria.

In the final of a game show, Simon is asked to pick one of three doors. There is nothing behind two of the doors, while the third is hiding the star prize of £10,000. After choosing a door, the host opens one of the two Simon hasn’t picked to reveal nothing but fresh air. He then asks Simon if he’d like to stick with his original choice, or switch to the one other remaining unopened door. What should he do and why?

This is based on a famous statistical problem once printed in a magazine. The correct answer is to switch, as it gives you a 2/3 chance of winning, as opposed to a 1/3 chance if you stick with your original choice. However, this goes against common sense, and many statistics professors wrote in to say that the answer was wrong. The key lies in the fact that the host didn't open the first door at random - he couldn't choose the one Simon had chosen, nor the one he knew was hiding the star prize. We can give the mathematical answer too!

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